Liverpool Street Flash Mob

Communities in the West are increasingly splintered and media channels increasingly fragmented – making the cohesive engagement of groups more difficult and challenging. For the advertising industry, which at times still struggles to throw off the organisational shackles of above, below or through-the-line, the introduction of ‘transmedia story telling’, ‘augmented reality’ or ‘blended reality’ adds even deeper layers of complication to an already complex communications story. Against this backdrop, experiential advertising through group mobilisation becomes an incredibly powerful branding tool.

So how can brands and agencies mobilise groups to their benefit and use these powerful forces to engage people with their brand?

Barack Obama, an Australian with a lost camera and the T-Mobile flash mob advert all share a common characteristic – they all successfully mobilised large groups to help them achieve their end goal. In 2008 Barack Obama compelled millions of black voters to visit the polling booth and in doing so became the first black president of the USA. In 2009 an Australian tourist visiting Greece found a French person’s lost camera and managed to harness over 250,000 people through Facebook to help him find the owner. In 2007 T-Mobile mobilised a 13,000 person flash mob and in doing so created an iconic piece of advertising.

To understand the forces at work in mobilising groups it is important to recognise the human triggers for joining these groups in the first place:

1. Fun

2. Share values

3. Reward

4. Herd instinct

Canvas8 subscribers can read the full report here.

The consensus view

…and here’s what everone else thinks is going to happen in 2010

ABI Research,  ABC News,  AdAge,  AdWeek,  All Things Digital,  Business Insider,  CCS Insight,  ClickZ,  CMS Watch,  CNBC,  The Daily Telegraph,  eMarketer,  Enders Analysis,  Forrester, Gartner,  The Guardian,  IDC,  Juniper Research,  LA Times,  Lunsford Group,  Mashable, MediaShift,  New York Times,  PaidContent,  PC Mag,  ReadWriteWeb,  SMB Group,  VentureBeat

What does 2010 have in store? © Creative Commons, David Reece (2008)

Scope

Canvas8’s Thought Leaders observed that in 2009 whilst eco and ethics remained relatively high on the agenda they took a backseat to the more pressing concern of family survival.

Here are their predictions for 2010.

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Dr. Alex Gordon on media and behaviour

Free newspapers, paid online news – a reversal of the current trend will totally transform the publishing industry and will have an influence on book publishing too, and will also alter the nature of news/information gathering and distribution.

The Shared Space project to remove all traffic lights from city centres in Europe, which aims to save lives and encourage greater pedestrianisation of cities, increased awareness and responsibility of motorists, more space for cyclists and reduced carbon emissions.  It will take a while to gain mass cultural acceptance but will make urban mobility easier, ensuring an economic advantage as well as a vital social one – it will change the way we live, making city living more relaxed and enjoyable.  Examples of the successes of this project can be seen in smaller towns in Europe such as Drachten in Holland.

The year will also see a rise in ethical consumption – legitimate self-indulgence through donation of personal time and effort for good causes.  Brands are going to begin to have to offer this trade-off to consumers more conscious of their role, responsibility and need to contribute to the community as well as consume.  A good example is the Orange Rockcorps initiative, which issued free gig tickets in return for voluntary work.

Mandy Saven on retail

More stores will aspire to be seen as carbon neutral. And, in the long term, they may actually produce energy and become carbon negative. This trend has already taken root in the hospitality sector with businesses like The Good Hotel, in San Francisco. Here, visitors can access a ‘hotline’ to offset their carbon emissions when they arrive at the hotel. They are also encouraged to take part in a ‘volunteer day’, where they help a local underserved community. These sorts of volunteer-oriented holiday programmes are likely to gather momentum with travellers who want to absolve themselves of post-purchase guilt.

Permission-based mobile marketing will become much more available, and popular among younger audiences who live their lives through their mobile phones. The opportunity for brands and retailers to reach consumers when they are on-the-go, through this medium, is enormous. In particular, shopping malls can benefit from this approach.

We will see the mass adoption of payment-by-phone in the west, and telecoms companies will compete with banks for transactional services via mobile phones. The boundaries will blur between the sectors and consumers will turn to trusted brands for more of their lifestyle needs.

Marco Bevolo on luxury

The first big luxury trend for 2010 is sustainability: luxury brands will need to take on board -and this time seriously- the whole eco/social sustainability challenge.

There will also be a consolidation towards fewer brands with a harder core of luxury values. The attempt of newcomer brands like Roberto Cavalli to turn minimalist will not work; only ‘true’ brands with authentic (aesthetic and ethical) values will survive.

Finally, luxury buyers will reassess the meaning of value. It’s time to go back to jackets that wear for a lifetime and shoes that last for a decade. Once again, people pay the price for true value, so the construction, the material selection and all the other intrinsic qualities of luxury products should adhere to stringent (traditional) luxury standards: no more plastic where there should be real leather and lower quality fibres where there should be cashmere.

Arvind Singhal on the Indian consumer

With the Indian economy firmly back on track and set to grow by over 8% in 2010, there will be a more confident Indian consumer, and consumption growth across all categories will be very robust.

Now that there are even more options to choose from, and newer retail channels to buy from, the average Indian consumer will become more demanding in terms of value and in terms of service expectations (shopping convenience and ambience, in-store service).

As incomes and confidence increase, Indian consumers will continue the trend towards becoming more and more individualistic. While world over, this is nothing really new, the challenge can be better appreciated in the backdrop of the fact that in 2010, the Indian consuming class (and in the age 15+) will be over 500 million in numbers.

Lars Cosh-Ishii on Japanese mobile

As crystal balling is a god/dog business, let’s keep it simple. We’re clearly looking at a quantum shift for the industry here, with level-up networks (as mentioned here), and everything from devices to content and service offerings marching towards that same beat. We should start to see results from the recent consolidation efforts by domestic handset makers and already notice a significant increase of biz-match requests coming across our desk from both local and global players.

It would be fair to suggest that services like NFC and mobile television, both well established now in Japan, will start making moves in other markets along with increased activity – everywhere – around platforms, location-based services, AR, marketing and app stores. Ultimately, the real action is a step beyond with operators re-evaluating their business models and position in the value-chain. Perhaps it would not be too bold to suggest that 2010 should be the year of ‘affordable flat-rate data plan wars’ in many other major markets, therefore enabling the belated mainstream discovery of the magic of mobile!

Mary Lou Quinlan on women

Midlife without benefits:  as more adult kids return home, women can’t retire or cut back, leading to a sentiment of “Forget the reinvention-give me a raise!”

The Social Media Tsunami will see the continued explosion of mombloggers, a growth in adult Facebook usage, gravitation of commerce and communication to mobile over desktop.

I expect women will stay cautious even longer than necessary. More unemployment will lead to more ’settling’ for whatever job and salary they can hold on tom, resulting in a feeling that ‘Good enough is Good Enough’.

Richard Watson on global divides and eco

2010 will see a separation between old and new economies in the sense of there being a lingering recession in what is very roughly the northern hemisphere (primarily US/UK) and a continued boom in the southern hemisphere (primarily China but also places like Australia). I would also expect individual economies to split in two with some sectors being very resilient and others not.

I can see globalisation collapsing slightly back into national boundaries. With this, expect rising nationalism and increasing protectionism.

The return of green – once the economy feels fixed the environment, sustainability and climate change will also come back faster and stronger than previously.

Looking back - © Creative Commons, travelling steve (2007)

Scope

Six Canvas8 Thought Leaders share their thoughts on the trials and tribulations of the last 12 months. Unsurprisingly, the impact of the recession dominates trends – but tough times breed innovation, and the ensuing change in both people’s outlook and brand response has led to several interesting developments in technology, luxury, retail and advertising.

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2009 has been an incredible year of change and one that many brands and agencies will be keen to consign to history.

It was the year when engagement and authenticity became a prerequisite for brands, when people opted for choice over control and technology fulfilled its potential as a powerful agent of change – whether it was the Iranian elections, Trafigura’s ’super-injunction’ or the #welovetheNHS hashtag in response to Republican scorn.

We’ve not seen people downgrading their lives in the same way as in previous recessions, or settling for lower quality products – but we have seen a reduction in quantity. People still treated themselves to luxury items but just less frequently, becoming increasingly judicious about how and where they spent their retail pound.

On the high street we’ve seen retailers continuing with recession-busting survival packages and smart responses that understand people’s changing habits. This resulted in a growth of luxury goods in smaller packaging and a rise of gourmet home cooking. The latter accelerated by an increased awareness in the West of the importance of nutrition, balanced diet and health concerns over obesity.

Against this backdrop online peer recommendation and real time feedback became the norm. Whether through UGC sites, peer recommendation offerings or Twitter there is nowhere left for brands to hide.

Consumers in the Western world have become increasingly cynical and less trusting of brands – Edelman’s Trust Barometer revealed 77% of US consumers trust brands less this year than last. Central to this have been financing scandals, greenwashing and heightened transparency through technology. While eco and ethics have remained high on the agenda they have taken a backseat in people’s mindset to the more pressing concern of family survival.

We asked some of our Thought Leaders what stand-out changes they’d observed in the last 12 months.

Alan Moore on engagement

One of the greatest changes in my sector has been an awakening that we are not going back to the way things used to be! There is now a growing realisation that in this wired-up world, people and data are inextricably interwoven. In addition, I’ve noticed the intensifying pressure by legacy media and business upon existing legislation, for example copyright law, to protect their industrial business models. I believe this will ultimately damage the long term economic future of this country.

Mandy Saven on retail

This year we saw the incorporation of Augmented Reality into e-commerce, advertising, packaging and in-store applications, effectively enabling consumers to view three- dimensional objects and garments superimposed upon a marker. This technology allows shoppers to ‘try on’ accessories and fashion items, without the hassle of the fitting room. In particular, we were impressed with www.holition.com (an AR application that could potentially change the way high-end jewellery is consumed) and www.zugara.com (where shoppers can ‘virtually fit’ clothing to their body shapes).

We have also seen the rise of more sophisticated, targeted and partnership-based pop-up concepts. For example, Gap’s revolving pop-up store, in New York, hosts a multitude of brands and retailers – and the roster has so far included non-fashion brands as well as high-end retailers. We’ve also seen pop-ups move into permanent stores, as retailers look to shake up their product mix. The concept has also been harnessed to bring a dose of art and culture to mass-market brands.

Lastly, we have recently been tracking the emergence of new – and often provocative – business models that allow consumers to make money as well as spend it. Crowdsprouting techniques used within physical stores, physical eBay stores, buy-sell-swap stores and underground supperclubs all point towards a new order. The boundaries are blurred between seller and consumer, online and offline, legitimate and underground – and the playing field has opened up for less established designers to trade in creative ways.

Lars Cosh-Ishii on mobile

While there are several interesting stories for 2009 in Japan’s mobile scene, the most significant development relates to the confirmation of next-generation wireless networks.

On June 10 the Ministry of Information and Communications (MIC) announced allocation of new spectrum for Long Term Evolution (LTE) operations based on approved business plans submitted by four Japanese telecom operators: DoCoMo, KDDI, SoftBank Mobile and eMobile.

Targeting commercial service launches in late 2010, and running through 2012. The combined budget for infrastructure for these new networks is estimated to top 1 Trillion JPY – or just over $11 Billion – by 2014. It was also forecast that, on average, 30% of the current subscriber base will migrate to take advantage of this “fiber-to-phone” speed increase within three years of initial deployment.

Alex Gordon on advertising and behaviour

The continued decline in spending on TV advertising and the continued rise and importance of digital advertising, and the richness & diversity of apps for mobile handsets.  It is almost possible to run every aspect of one’s life from an iphone – and this will influence all forms of advertising and media including entertainment as they shift to fit within the smallest of frames on these devices.

The continuing search for greater insight into consumer behaviour and attitudes has seen the growth in 2009 of alternative research techniques to challenge the dominance of traditional quant & qual e.g. eye tracking, brain imaging, ethnography, online groups, and of course semiotics.

Mary Lou Quinlan on women in the US

No Jobs, No Jobs, No Jobs: women were stunned to find themselves out of work, or afraid they soon would be, even when they are good at what they do. Confidence hits the purse hard.

In addition, as their partners lost their jobs, there’s been the 77% of a loaf syndrome. Women became the breadwinners, adding yet another burden to an already overwhelmed life, but without paycheck equality. ‘Her money’ is a thing of the past. Amidst these mounting pressures women’s lives became something of a No Fun Zone: cutting back and redefining “the essentials” took precedence over rewards. What started out as a “Yes, we can” attitude has devolved into a cautious “No, we can’t.”

Marco Bevolo on the global luxury buyer

The economic downturn, of course. Luxury – as in ‘marketing bling bling’ – hit the wall, and without an airbag! People disinvested from mid-range, out-of-nowhere brands.

With less money and more insecurity, people have been returning to “the” luxury brands (Cartier, Chanel, Hermes…), the ones with solid roots, superior (hi)story (telling) and true core in terms of real value over the decades: luxury is back to being an investment, not a frivolity.

The urge to de-invest from stocks and similar has led to a rapid rise of top luxury products: this has been one of the best years for Ferrari. Lamborghini, on the other hand, being more of a toy-for-boys with less perceived lasting value, suffered.

Arvind Singhal on the Indian market

The Indian economy is expected to have grown by more than 6.5% in 2009. At the beginning of the year, people were still hesitant about the outlook for the year in view of continuous flow of “bad news” from rest of the world which found its way to the Indian media and impacted by tightening of budgets all round by different businesses and employers.

Against this background, the first big challenge for the Indian consumer was probably deciding whether “to buy or not to buy”. Few really lost jobs, and while there were salary cuts or wage-increase freezes in many organizations, the overall sentiment in the first half of the year was that of introspection and conservation.

India has been seeing a ‘what not to buy’ phenomenon for many years now where a relatively young, highly aspirational, and increasingly a “first time” consuming population is seeing an expansion of the categories of goods and services that they would like to spend money on increasing faster than their incomes. Hence, the consumers have been facing this dilemma almost every day as they experience this “category” collide and have to make choices. The third major trend is a redefinition of value. With newer, aggressive players in almost all categories of consumer products and services, “value” is getting redefined very regularly putting some pressure on the consumer to reorient themselves to these new definitions.

Canvas8 subscribers can access related reports on Canvas8

Chris Arnold, ‘Eco then and in 2010: how will next year’s ethical buyer behave?’, 11 December 2009. Available here

Debbi Evans, ‘Impermanence as a rising cultural trend’, 16 October 2009. Available here

David North, ‘The authentic dollar: the secret of the anti-marketing market’, 11 August 2009. Available here

A phone-booth outside of Old Street Station, London

What happens if you like music, photos and style? Do they have to be exclusive? Can someone who listens to music not also be stylish? Can someone who likes to take photos not also like to listen to music?

An estimated 80% of Brazil's construction activities are independently-run Creative Commons, nateone (2008) ©

In Brazil, the buoyant construction market means there aren’t always enough qualified construction workers to go around. Majoritymarkets.org estimate that 80% of housing projects in the country are independently-run, often by unskilled labourers. Although it’s been running since 2006, Construction Doctors is a clever and ethical way of educating and empowering the local community – and boosting profits for local retailers in the process.

Canvas8 subscribers can read the full Focus article here.

Challenging stereotypes © Deke Rivers (2009)

Generation Y are often mistaken for a flippant, media-frenzied group, constantly switched on to the zeitgeist but incapable of changing it for the better. Yet amidst this (rather misguided) stereotype lies a distinct glimmer of hope. Regardless of where you are in the world, press on the attitudes of Generation Y is likely to paint an unfavourable picture. The generalisation is that they are a flippant group, constantly shifting between jobs and expecting extortionately high pay along the way. You could be forgiven for thinking that the entire generation suffers some form of Attention Deficit Disorder: according to the press they are ‘always on’, five screens active at any time and more likely to be on Facebook than doing anything meaningful with their lives.

Barrie Barton introduces a Gen Y subset emerging in Australia, whose radically different attitudes and values can be identified in five key behavioural patterns.

Canvas8 subscribers can read Barrie’s analysis here.

O2's giffgaff - from the old Scottish phrase meaning "mutual giving"

O2’s new launch giffgaff caught our eye.

Giffgaff is a mobile phone network which relies on crowdsourcing for its customer service and marketing strategies. The sim-only network is the first of a kind to launch in the UK, and presents a new model for pay-as-you-go communication. Whereas large mobile networks attract complaints about poor customer service and lengthy contracts, giffgaff provides a cost effective alternative inspired by social networking with user generated marketing campaigns and no call centres.

We’ve done a full review that is available for subscribers here.