What does 2010 have in store? © Creative Commons, David Reece (2008)

Scope

Canvas8’s Thought Leaders observed that in 2009 whilst eco and ethics remained relatively high on the agenda they took a backseat to the more pressing concern of family survival.

Here are their predictions for 2010.

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Dr. Alex Gordon on media and behaviour

Free newspapers, paid online news – a reversal of the current trend will totally transform the publishing industry and will have an influence on book publishing too, and will also alter the nature of news/information gathering and distribution.

The Shared Space project to remove all traffic lights from city centres in Europe, which aims to save lives and encourage greater pedestrianisation of cities, increased awareness and responsibility of motorists, more space for cyclists and reduced carbon emissions.  It will take a while to gain mass cultural acceptance but will make urban mobility easier, ensuring an economic advantage as well as a vital social one – it will change the way we live, making city living more relaxed and enjoyable.  Examples of the successes of this project can be seen in smaller towns in Europe such as Drachten in Holland.

The year will also see a rise in ethical consumption – legitimate self-indulgence through donation of personal time and effort for good causes.  Brands are going to begin to have to offer this trade-off to consumers more conscious of their role, responsibility and need to contribute to the community as well as consume.  A good example is the Orange Rockcorps initiative, which issued free gig tickets in return for voluntary work.

Mandy Saven on retail

More stores will aspire to be seen as carbon neutral. And, in the long term, they may actually produce energy and become carbon negative. This trend has already taken root in the hospitality sector with businesses like The Good Hotel, in San Francisco. Here, visitors can access a ‘hotline’ to offset their carbon emissions when they arrive at the hotel. They are also encouraged to take part in a ‘volunteer day’, where they help a local underserved community. These sorts of volunteer-oriented holiday programmes are likely to gather momentum with travellers who want to absolve themselves of post-purchase guilt.

Permission-based mobile marketing will become much more available, and popular among younger audiences who live their lives through their mobile phones. The opportunity for brands and retailers to reach consumers when they are on-the-go, through this medium, is enormous. In particular, shopping malls can benefit from this approach.

We will see the mass adoption of payment-by-phone in the west, and telecoms companies will compete with banks for transactional services via mobile phones. The boundaries will blur between the sectors and consumers will turn to trusted brands for more of their lifestyle needs.

Marco Bevolo on luxury

The first big luxury trend for 2010 is sustainability: luxury brands will need to take on board -and this time seriously- the whole eco/social sustainability challenge.

There will also be a consolidation towards fewer brands with a harder core of luxury values. The attempt of newcomer brands like Roberto Cavalli to turn minimalist will not work; only ‘true’ brands with authentic (aesthetic and ethical) values will survive.

Finally, luxury buyers will reassess the meaning of value. It’s time to go back to jackets that wear for a lifetime and shoes that last for a decade. Once again, people pay the price for true value, so the construction, the material selection and all the other intrinsic qualities of luxury products should adhere to stringent (traditional) luxury standards: no more plastic where there should be real leather and lower quality fibres where there should be cashmere.

Arvind Singhal on the Indian consumer

With the Indian economy firmly back on track and set to grow by over 8% in 2010, there will be a more confident Indian consumer, and consumption growth across all categories will be very robust.

Now that there are even more options to choose from, and newer retail channels to buy from, the average Indian consumer will become more demanding in terms of value and in terms of service expectations (shopping convenience and ambience, in-store service).

As incomes and confidence increase, Indian consumers will continue the trend towards becoming more and more individualistic. While world over, this is nothing really new, the challenge can be better appreciated in the backdrop of the fact that in 2010, the Indian consuming class (and in the age 15+) will be over 500 million in numbers.

Lars Cosh-Ishii on Japanese mobile

As crystal balling is a god/dog business, let’s keep it simple. We’re clearly looking at a quantum shift for the industry here, with level-up networks (as mentioned here), and everything from devices to content and service offerings marching towards that same beat. We should start to see results from the recent consolidation efforts by domestic handset makers and already notice a significant increase of biz-match requests coming across our desk from both local and global players.

It would be fair to suggest that services like NFC and mobile television, both well established now in Japan, will start making moves in other markets along with increased activity – everywhere – around platforms, location-based services, AR, marketing and app stores. Ultimately, the real action is a step beyond with operators re-evaluating their business models and position in the value-chain. Perhaps it would not be too bold to suggest that 2010 should be the year of ‘affordable flat-rate data plan wars’ in many other major markets, therefore enabling the belated mainstream discovery of the magic of mobile!

Mary Lou Quinlan on women

Midlife without benefits:  as more adult kids return home, women can’t retire or cut back, leading to a sentiment of “Forget the reinvention-give me a raise!”

The Social Media Tsunami will see the continued explosion of mombloggers, a growth in adult Facebook usage, gravitation of commerce and communication to mobile over desktop.

I expect women will stay cautious even longer than necessary. More unemployment will lead to more ’settling’ for whatever job and salary they can hold on tom, resulting in a feeling that ‘Good enough is Good Enough’.

Richard Watson on global divides and eco

2010 will see a separation between old and new economies in the sense of there being a lingering recession in what is very roughly the northern hemisphere (primarily US/UK) and a continued boom in the southern hemisphere (primarily China but also places like Australia). I would also expect individual economies to split in two with some sectors being very resilient and others not.

I can see globalisation collapsing slightly back into national boundaries. With this, expect rising nationalism and increasing protectionism.

The return of green – once the economy feels fixed the environment, sustainability and climate change will also come back faster and stronger than previously.